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U.S. Senate election, 2004

Elections to the United States Senate will be held on November 2, 2004, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested. Since Senators are elected for six-year terms, those elected will serve from January 3, 2005 until January 3, 2011. Those Senators who were elected in 1998 will be seeking re-election (or retiring) in 2004.

For the same date are scheduled:

• the U.S. Presidential election, 2004
• the U.S. House election, 2004

as well as many state and local elections.

Major parties

The Senate is currently composed of 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and 1 independent. (The independent, James Jeffords of Vermont, is allied with the Democratic caucus, but does not count in determining control of the Senate.) If the Republican party emerges from the election with members holding exactly 50 seats, organizational control of the chamber for the ensuing two years would belong to the party whose nominee wins the Presidential election, as the Vice-President-elect would cast the deciding vote. (This situation occurred following the 2000 election.)

Formerly, if Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry were to become president, the governor would have appointed his replacement, who would have served until the next election in 2006. This would likely have been a Republican, as the governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, is a Republican. However, on July 30, 2004, the heavily Democratic Massachusetts state House and Senate overrode Romney's veto on a bill that changed how replacement senators were chosen, thus making the bill into law. Under the law as changed by the bill, if Kerry is elected, the seat will remain vacant for 145 to 160 days, at which point there will be a special election.

The bill is widely viewed as being politically motivated. Without the benefit of two years of incumbency for their candidate, Republicans will be at a significant disadvantage in highly Democratic Massachusetts. With control of the United States Senate so closely divided, the issue became a concern for state legislators. The anticipation of the possibility of the special election has already prompted several Massachusetts Democrats to start raising money to run for Kerry's seat. No Republicans have signalled their intentions to run yet. With this bill enacted, there is the interesting possibility of the new Senate being controlled by one party for the first few months, with control for the rest of the term decided by the Massachusetts special election.

The Democrats thus need to make a net gain of at least two seats to gain control of the Senate. If they gain exactly two seats and John Kerry wins the presidency, the Democrats will also need to avoid losing Kerry's former seat.

Vulnerable Republican seats

One Republican seat, that of retiring Peter Fitzgerald in Illinois is almost certain to be taken by the Democratic nominee (Barack Obama). Another vulnerable seat is Ben Nighthorse Campbell's seat in Colorado, which is being heavily challenged following Campbell's announced retirement. The Alaska seat currently held by Lisa Murkowski is also considered to be competitive, since the Republican edge in the state is offset by the unpopularity of Governor Frank Murkowski's appointing his daughter to the seat, and the popularity of the Democrat challenger, ex-governor Tony Knowles.

• Alaska: Tony Knowles is in a statistical dead heat with incumbent Lisa Murkowski. Although Alaska is a heavily Republican state, popular opinion has swung against the Murkowski family because of a tax increase passed by Lisa's father. Knowles has enlisted extensive out-of-state support for his bid to oust Murkowski. Colorado: Democratic attorney general Ken Salazar has maintained a small lead in polls over Republican brewing executive Pete Coors. Salazar may have benefitted from an extended (and, by many descriptions, extraordinarily negative) Republican primary campaign between Coors and Rep. Bob Schaffer. A Illinois: Democratic candidate Barack Obama, a widely popular Kenyan-American state legislator, is currently running without serious opposition following the withdrawal of Republican candidate Jack Ryan. After a long search that saw Republicans considering numerous substitutes for Ryan, including former Chicago Bears coach Mike Ditka, former governors, and state senators, two finalists were selected for the race: former presidential candidate Alan Keyes and former deputy drug czar Andrea Grubb Barthwell. After more detailed interviews with the finalists, Alan Keyes was offered the nomination, and accepted it on Sunday, August 8. Obama remains a heavy favorite.
• Oklahoma: Democratic Congressman Brad Carson has a slight lead in polls over Republican Tom Coburn in the contest for retiring Sen. Don Nickles's seat. Although Oklahoma is a very conservative and Republican state, Coburn has been weakened by a vicious primary campaign and a history of making provocative statements. The candidates will square off in a debate on October 27.

Other viable candidates who could win Republican-held seats include Joe Hoeffel in Pennsylvania and Nancy Farmer in Missouri. However, each faces an uphill battle. While Pennsylvania is a swing state that has been leaning Democratic in presidential elections and Missouri is an evenly divided swing state, both states have leaned Republican in Senate races.

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Vulnerable Democratic seats

The Democrats' prospects are weakened by the fact that five of their incumbent Senators in Southern states will be retiring. Two seats, in Georgia (Zell Miller) and South Carolina (Ernest Hollings), are considered especially vulnerable to Republican challengers. Two others, Florida (Bob Graham) and Louisiana (John Breaux), are expected to be close races. The only Southern Democrat seeking re-election to the Senate is Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, who has been careful to align herself with the President on some key issues.

• Florida: After a heated primary race on both sides, the Florida race is considered to be a tossup: Democrat Betty Castor leads Republican Mel Martinez in statewide polls by a very slight margin. In mid-August, the Florida race became the most expensive in the country, with total fundraising of nearly $30 million.
• Georgia: Zell Miller's seat was being contested as fiercely as Graham's into the primary elections on July 20. Rep. Johnny Isakson is the Republican candidate; Rep. Denise Majette defeated her closest rival, Cliff Oxford, in a runoff for the Democratic nomination on August 10. Isakson is favored to win the general election by a comfortable margin.
• Louisiana: John Breaux's seat is widely viewed as a tossup, although Louisiana's open primary system makes it difficult to gauge who has the lead in the race. Only one Republican, Rep. David Vitter, is in the running. He is challenged by three major Democratic candidates, foremost among them Rep. Chris John.
• South Carolina: Republican Rep. Jim DeMint is several points ahead of Democratic nominee Inez Tenenbaum in early polls, and the GOP is confident in a November victory.
• South Dakota: Tom Daschle, the current Democratic floor leader, is being challenged by John Thune, who has extensive support from Republicans in Washington eager to oust Daschle. Polls show a very tight race, with the lead fluctuating. The state's tendency toward conservatism in federal elections, as well as the Republicans' drive, makes Daschle's race for reelection more difficult than most incumbents'.

Another viable candidate is Richard Burr in North Carolina, who faces Democrat Erskine Bowles for the seat John Edwards is vacating for his vice-presidential bid. However, a number of polls have shown Bowles leading Burr by approximately 50% to 40%. Popular anger in North Carolina at Republican trade policies will likely keep the seat in Democratic hands, but Bowles is not invulnerable.

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Third and minor parties

The Libertarian Party will be contesting most of the seats. The Constitution and Green parties will also contest many of the seats. While these parties have little chance of winning a Senate seat in 2004, having never won any seat in Congress, they sometimes affect the outcome of Senate races by drawing votes away from the major parties. The Constitution Party draws conservatives from the Republicans, the Greens draw liberals from the Democrats, while the Libertarians draw votes from both major parties.

Minor parties in a number of states will contest one or more Senate seats. Examples include the American First Party, the Labor Party, the Peace and Freedom Party, and the Socialist Workers Party. These parties are unlikely to overcome ballot access hurdles, so will have almost no chance of gaining any seats.

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Senate contests in 2004

State	Incumbent	Party	Status	Candidates
Alabama	Richard Shelby	Republican	Running for 4th term	Wayne Sowell (Democrat)
Alaska	Lisa Murkowski	Republican	Running for 1st full term	Tony Knowles (Democrat)
Arizona	John McCain	Republican	Running for 4th term	Stuart Starky (Democrat)
Arkansas	Blanche Lincoln	Democrat	Running for 2nd term	Jim Holt (Republican)
California	Barbara Boxer	Democrat	Running for 3rd term	James Gray (Libertarian) Bill Jones (Republican)
Colorado	Ben Nighthorse Campbell	Republican	Retiring	Ken Salazar (Democrat) Pete Coors (Republican)
Connecticut	Christopher Dodd	Democrat	Running for 5th term	Jack Orlucchi (Republican)
Florida	Bob Graham	Democrat	Retiring	Betty Castor (Democrat) Mel Martinez (Republican) Dennis Bradley (Veterans)
Georgia	Zell Miller	Democrat	Retiring	Denise Majette (Democrat) Johnny Isakson (Republican)
Hawaii	Daniel Inouye	Democrat	Running for 8th term	Jay Friedheim (Republican) Rich Payne (Republican) Jeff Mallan (Libertarian)
Idaho	Mike Crapo	Republican	Running for 2nd term	Scott McClure (Democrat write-in)
Illinois	Peter Fitzgerald	Republican	Retiring	Barack Obama (Democrat) Alan Keyes (Republican) Jerry Kohn (Libertarian)
Indiana	Evan Bayh	Democrat	Running for 2nd term	Marvin Scott (Republican)
Iowa	Charles Grassley	Republican	Running for 5th term	Arthur Small (Democrat)
Kansas	Sam Brownback	Republican	Running for 2nd term	Robert Conroy (Democrat)
Kentucky	Jim Bunning	Republican	Running for 2nd term	Dan Mongiardo (Democrat)
Louisiana	John Breaux	Democrat	Retiring	Chris John (Democrat) John Kennedy (Democrat) David Vitter (Republican)
Maryland	Barbara Mikulski	Democrat	Running for 4th term	E. J. Pipkin (Republican)
Missouri	Christopher S. Bond	Republican	Running for 4th term	Nancy Farmer (Democrat)
Nevada	Harry Reid	Democrat	Running for 4th term	Richard Ziser (Republican)
New Hampshire	Judd Gregg	Republican	Running for 3rd term	Doris Haddock (Democrat)
New York	Charles Schumer	Democrat	Running for 2nd term	Howard Mills (Republican) Martin Koppel (Socialist Workers) Marilyn O'Grady (Conservative)
North Carolina	John Edwards	Democrat	Retiring	Erskine Bowles (Democrat) Tom Bailey (Libertarian) Richard Burr (Republican)
North Dakota	Byron Dorgan	Democratic-NPL	Running for 3rd term	Mike Liffrig (Republican)
Ohio	George Voinovich	Republican	Running for 2nd term	Eric Fingerhut (Democrat)
Oklahoma	Don Nickles	Republican	Retiring	Brad Carson (Democrat) Tom Coburn (Republican)
Oregon	Ron Wyden	Democrat	Running for 2nd term	Al King (Republican) Dan Fitzgerald (Libertarian)
Pennsylvania	Arlen Specter	Republican	Running for 5th term	Joe Hoeffel (Democrat)
South Carolina	Ernest Hollings	Democrat	Retiring	Inez Tenenbaum (Democrat) Jim DeMint (Republican) Efia Nwangaza (Green) Reb Sutherland (Libertarian)
South Dakota	Tom Daschle	Democrat	Running for 4th term	John Thune (Republican)
Utah	Robert F. Bennett	Republican	Running for 3rd term	Paul Van Dam (Democrat)
Vermont	Patrick Leahy	Democrat	Running for 6th term	Peter Moss (Republican) Jack McMullen (Libertarian) Ben Mitchell (Liberty Union) Cris Ericson (Independent)
Washington	Patty Murray	Democrat	Running for 3rd term	Reed Davis (Republican) J. Mills (Libertarian) George Nethercutt (Republican)
Wisconsin	Russ Feingold	Democrat	Running for 3rd term	Tim Michels (Republican)